9YUEFENDEGANGSHIJIHUQUANPANTAXIAN，CHULEYUEZHONGXUNYOUGUODUANZANDEBAOFUXINGFANDAN，GANGJIAZAIQIYUSHIJIANNEIJUNYISHENDIEWEIZHUXIAN。YOUJIBENMIANPIRUANDEBEIJING，YEYOUSHICHANGJIGOUBUDUANRENWEICHAOZUODEJIEGUO，XIANHUOGANGSHIJIHUBEIQISHIQIANZHEBIZIZOU。“JINJIU”JIBENLUOKONG，“YINSHI”XIWANGHEZAI?

现期货联袂深跌，市场信心破碎难愈

GANGJIAYILUSHENDIEZHICI，ZAOYIJINGRANGSHICHANGMAMU，YEZHENGSHIYOUYUXIANHUOSHICHANGDE“YONGDIE”，CUSHIJIGOUHEGANGCHANGDENGZAIQIGANGSHICHANGDASHICHAOKONG。DAOMUQIAN，GUONEIXIANHUOGANGJIAJIAONIANCHUDIEFUDADAO13%，JIAOQUNIANTONGQIXIADIE14.6%;LUOWENGANGQIHUOZHULIHEYUEJIAONIANCHUDIEFUWEI27.1%，JIAOQUNIANTONGQIDIE28.5%;QIHUODIEFURENGYUANGAOYUXIANHUO，DUISHICHANGXINXINCHIXUDAILAICHENZHONGDEDAJI。DANFENXISHIRENWEI，QIGANGDADIE，DUOYISHICHANGZIJINZUOKONGYOUGUAN，BUGUODUOTOURENGZAIJIANCHI，2600DIANFUJINZULIJIAOZHONG，JIXUDADIEDEKENENGXINGPIANDI。

ZAIXIANHUOSHICHANGCHENGJIAOBUCHANGDEQINGKUANGXIA，GANGCAIMAOYISHANGKAN“QIHUO”ERDONG，CHUHUOCHENGWEIDIYIYAOWU，ZAIGONGDAYUQIUDEHUANJINGQIANMIAN，ZHONGDUANXINGYEYONGYOUDEHUAYUQUANZENGDA，SHICHANGYUQIYIJINGBUZAIBEIGUANZHU，ZHONGYAODEZAIYUXINXINDEBIANHUA。

进口矿5年来首次跌破80，继续下跌空间有限

CIQIANJINKOUKUANGJIADIEPO80MEIYUANGUANKOU，ZUIXINBAOJIAZAI79.75MEIYUAN/DUN，JINNIANYILAIDIEFUCHAOGUO41%，YESHIZUIJIN5NIANLAISHOUCIDIEZHI80MEIYUANYIXIA，YIJINGDUIZHUDUODEGAOCHENGBENKUANGQIXINGCHENGZHIMINGXINGDAJI;JINNIAN8YUEFENWOGUOJINKOUTIEKUANGSHIZONGLIANGDAFUHUILUO9.26%，JIANSHAOYUE764WANDUN，YINDUYOUYUGUONEIGONGBUYINGQIU，DUIHUACHUKOUTIEKUANGSHILIANGMINGXIANXIAJIANG;GUOJITIEKUANGSHIXINGYEZHENGZAIKAIZHANYIXILIEDEJIANBINGZHONGZU，XINDESHICHANGFENEGUAFENJIEJINWEISHENG，GUOJIKUANGQIJUTOUZHUDONGJIANGJIADEGAILVBEIJIANGDI;JIASHANGGUOJIKUANGQIJUTOUDUIZHONGGUOJINGJIHUINUANRENGCHONGMANXINXIN，HOUQITINGJIALIDUHUOXUHUIZHUANQIANG。

YUCITONGSHI，GUONEIGANGCHANGGAOLUKAIGONGLVRENGZAI96%YISHANG，FANYINGDUITIEKUANGSHIDENGYUANLIAODEXUQIUBINGWEIJIANRUO，ZAIKUANGJIADIBU，YUJIZHANGQIWEICHIDIYUANLIAOKUCUNZHOUQIDEGANGCHANGLUXUJIANGYOUBUKUCAIGOU，HOUQIKUANGJIADEDIBUZHICHENGJIANGZHUBUXIANXIAN。

经济滑坡论不可信，适当平稳需保持

SUIZHEJINNIANYILAIGUONEIJINGJIDECHIXUPIRUAN，GUANYUZHONGGUOJINGJIDAHUAPODELUNDIAOBUDUAN，TEBIESHICIQIANDEBEIDAIHEJUEYI，SHIDESHICHANGCHUXIANLEFEILIXINGDEGUOFENJIEDU，JIAJUSHICHANGKANDIEJINGJIXIAHUADEKONGHUANGQINGXU。FENXISHIZHICHU，SUIRANZHONGYANGGAOCENGMOXUZENGSUZAI7.5%YIXIA，BINGQIEQIANGDIAOGAIGEHUIYOUXIANYUWENZENGZHANGJIDAGUIMOCIJI;DANSHIZHEIYILUNDIAO，KENDINGSHIYOUTEDINGDEQIANTIDE，ZHEIGEQIANTIKENENGSHI，JINGJIDEHUILUOSHIFOUHUIYINGXIANGDAOJIUYE、SHEHUIWENDING、FANFUDENGYIXILIEDEWENTI;JIGOUCESUAN，YIDANJINGJIZENGSUZHOURANJIANGZHI7%JIYIXIA，BIRANHUIDUIGUONEIJIUYEDENGZAOCHENGMINGXIANDEZHENDANG，ZHEIBUSHIGAOCENGYUANYIKANDAODE，YINCIJINGJIDAHUAPODEKENENGXINGBUDA。

WOGUODEJINGJIDIAOZHENG、GAIGE、FANFUDENG，JUNXUYAOYIGEXIANGDUIWENDINGDEJINGJIHUANJING，YINCIGAOCENGBUHUIYUNXUJINGJICHUXIANDADEHUAPO，GANGCAISHICHANGSUOCHUDEZHENGTIJINGJIDAHUANJINGYINGDANGSHIHUIXIANGDUIWENDINGDE，BUBIGUOYUDANXIN。

重大项目进入攻坚期，钢铁需求尚有释放空间

SUIRANZHONGYANGQIANGDIAOGAIGEDIAOJIEGOUJIANGYOUXIANYUWENZENGZHANGJIAMA，DANTIELUJIANSHE、PENGGAI、CHENGSHIJIJIANDENGZHONGDAWENZENGZHANGXIANGMUJINGGUOQIANQIZHUNBEI，HOUQIKAIGONGHUOYUEDUYINGGAIHUILUXUZENGQIANG，SHIJIANJIJIANGJINRU10YUEFEN，BEIFANGTIANQIZHUJIANZHUANLENG，HUWAISHIGONGSHIJIANYOUXIAN;SUIZHEDINGXIANGJIANGZHUNDENGHUOBIZHENGCEDEFANGKUAN，TIELU、BAOZHANGFANGDENGZHONGDAGONGCHENGXIANGMUJINRUSHIGONGGONGJIANQI，JIASHANGZHIZAOGONGYEDECHAOYUQIHUINUAN，GANGTIEXUQIUZAISHIYUEFENYINGDANGHUIYOUTIGAO。TEBIESHIDANGQIANZHUDUOXIANLUODENGPINZHONGDEGANGCAIGUIGEQUEHUOYANZHONG，GONGDINAHUOJIAONAN，YEJIANGZAIYIDINGCHENGDUSHANGZUZHIGANGJIAJIXUSHENDIE。

ZONGHEGUANDIAN：DUIDANGQIANDEGANGCAISHICHANG，BUKEGUOYUSHILUO，DANYEBUNENGBAOYOUYIXIANGTIANKAIBANDE“CHAODIEFANDAN”XIANGFA。ZHIZAOYECHAOYUQIHUINUAN、HUOBIZHENGCECAOZUO、GAIGESHENRUDENGLIHAODUIGANGSHILAISHUOYOURU“JIUHANFENGGANLIN”，JIASHANGGUOQINGZHANGJIAJIANGZHI，YUJIJIEQIANZHONGDUANHUIYOUYIBOBUHUOXUQIUCHUXIAN，DUIGANGSHIDEYUNXINGYEJIANGYOUYIDINGDEZHICHENG;GUOQINGJIEHOU，SHICHANGYESHANGYOUYUQI，QIEYUEDI、JIDUMOZIJINYALIHUANJIEZHIHOU，SHICHANGHUOXUHUIYOUCHUNCHUNYUDONGZHIXIN，GANGJIAZAIDIBUKENENGHUICHUXIANSHITANXINGFANDANXINGQING。